More than 3,000 individuals in the Gwent area are expected to face waits exceeding two years for specific surgical procedures during the upcoming twelve months.
This projection, which would constitute a breach of Welsh Government performance standards, features within the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board’s yearly strategy for NHS provision in the region throughout the coming period.
During the current twelve months, the health board has had only 434 individuals experiencing waits beyond two years, yet maintains it cannot preserve these reduced figures without supplementary resources.
Senior health officials recognised that the board’s constrained financial circumstances, combined with its projected end-of-year deficit of £43.7 million for the 2026/27 period, will prevent compliance with all mandated performance standards.
Hannah Evans, the planning director, indicated the organisation is prioritising measures to enhance urgent and emergency services following the Welsh Government’s elevation of the board within its escalation framework in December, citing requirements for improvement regarding the emergency department at Cwmbran’s Grange Hospital and the board’s fiscal governance.
Elected members endorsed the annual strategy during the March gathering, and Ms Evans informed them that establishing clear priorities and commitments while acknowledging consequences was essential for the year ahead.
However, she noted that headway in decreasing two-year, or 104-week, waits for particular operations could not be sustained given fiscal constraints, with reductions accomplished in the previous financial year attributable to temporary, non-recurring allocations.
The 104-week waiting requirement represents one of the most significant national benchmarks expected to go unmet, according to Ms Evans. The considerable advancement achieved this year resulted primarily from one-off national funding, and maintaining such progress without additional resources is not feasible.
Ms Evans indicated that approximately 1,400 of those individuals likely to exceed two-year waits will require orthopaedic procedures. Other affected specialties encompass ear, nose and throat services, general surgery, maxillo-facial treatment, and ophthalmology.
She acknowledged that sustained efforts to address lengthy waits remain essential and that extended waiting periods for patients are not tolerable.
The strategy does undertake to achieve the objective that 75 per cent of individuals should either be discharged or commence their initial definitive treatment within 62 days of cancer suspicion. During the current twelve-month period, this reached 55.9 per cent.
The board has also pledged to diminish the number of individuals awaiting treatment beyond 62 days by the conclusion of March 2027.
Furthermore, the aim is to hit the benchmark that nobody waits longer than eight weeks for a designated diagnostic procedure by the same deadline, with the present total standing at 2,387.
The strategy concedes that the requirement for zero ambulance delays exceeding 45 minutes for patient handover, and for no individual to remain in major or minor emergency facilities for twelve hours or longer from arrival through to admission, transfer or discharge, will not be achieved.
During the current year, 1,471 ambulances have experienced delays surpassing 45 minutes at the Grange Hospital, with plans to decrease this to 354 by March 2027. Currently, 1,089 individuals have waited beyond twelve hours, with intentions to lower this to 799.
Ms Evans explained that while national benchmarks will not be met, the figures within the strategy aim to satisfy the de-escalation thresholds necessary for downgrading under the Welsh Government framework.
Overall, the strategy anticipates fulfilling 16 of the 20 Welsh Government performance targets.